Rapid deployment of solar PV in the SDS underpins more than doubling of mineral demand for solar PV by 2040 despite continued intensity reductions However, slower assumed improvements in material intensity for silver and silicon offset the lower capacity additions, resulting in similar demand for silver and silicon in the two scenarios. Solar PV capacity additions in 2040 in the STEPS are 25% lower than in the SDS. However, potential material intensity reductions could significantly dampen demand growth for both silver and silicon, with 2040 levels only 18% and 45% higher than in 2020. In the SDS, capacity additions in 2040 are triple those of 2020, resulting in a near tripling of copper demand from solar PV. In both the STEPS and SDS, solar sets new records for deployment each year after 2022, representing 45% of total power capacity additions by 2040. Worldwide solar PV capacity has increased by almost 20 times over the past decade, spurred by declining costs and strong policy support in key regions. These efforts also need to be accompanied by a range of measures to dampen the rapid growth in primary supply requirements such as promoting technology innovation for material efficiency or substitution, scaling up recycling and extending the lifetime of existing assets through better maintenance (see Reliable supply of minerals). Governments have a key role to play in reducing uncertainty by sending strong and consistent signals about their climate ambitions and implementing specific policies to fulfil these long-term goals. The biggest source of demand variance comes from the uncertainty surrounding announced and expected climate ambitions – in other words, whether clean energy deployment and resulting mineral demand follows STEPS or SDS trajectories. Despite the promise of massive demand growth, mining and processing companies may be reluctant to commit large-scale investment given the wide range of possible demand trajectories. These large uncertainties around possible futures may act as a factor that hampers mining and processing companies’ investment decisions, which could in turn cause supply-demand imbalances in the years ahead. We explore the impacts of varying technology evolution trends through 11 alternative cases under both the STEPS and SDS, in addition to our base case. ![]() Projected mineral demand is highly dependent on the stringency of climate policies (reflected in the difference between the STEPS and SDS) as well as potential technology development pathways such as different solar PV module types or EV battery chemistries. Hydrogen (electrolysers and fuel cells).įor each of the clean energy technologies, we estimate overall mineral demand using four main variables: clean energy deployment trends under the STEPS and SDS sub-technology shares within each technology area mineral intensity of each sub-technology and mineral intensity improvements.Low-carbon power generation: solar PV, wind, other renewables and nuclear.This chapter assesses the aggregate mineral demand from a wide range of clean energy technologies under the IEA’s Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) and the Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS), including:
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